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Surgery VS Watchful Waiting MO Difficult to quote for sure but your particular hernia is on the higher end of the risk spectrum than a non-incarcerated, reducible hernia as I am assuming by your post that you cannot push it back in? Some data will suggest the risk in the range of 2% / year that you watch it that it will require surgery on an urgent/emergent basis. In my opinion your would be higher but unable to predict to my knowledge. Thanks 
 Dr. Szotek
 
		